RESEARCH

PART 1 • PUBLISHED

STUPID vs HODL (BASELINE)

Coin flips, dice rolls, and planetary gravity vs Buy-and-Hold. Establishes that beating HODL is a low bar.

CRYPTO 38,778 tests

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PART 3 • PUBLISHED

THE OMEGA SYSTEM

171 metrics across 6 levels. Technical, quantitative, ML, macro, and leading indicators. $10K → $1.15M in 2021.

171 METRICS 9,868% return

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PART 4 • PUBLISHED

ML MODEL TRAINING

From failed LLM experiments to gradient boosting success. XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM on 94 assets, 10 years of data.

XGBoost AUC: 0.566

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PART 5 • IN PROGRESS

REGIME DETECTION

HMM, Random Forest, BiLSTM+Attention for detecting Bull/Bear/Sideways. 233K rows, 203 features, 97 assets.

3 MODELS 90-DAY LSTM

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PART 6 • TESTING

NEWS SENTIMENT

Real-time news analysis via hybrid RSS + NewsData.io. Failed expensive APIs ($200/mo), found optimal free solution. GPT-4o for sentiment scoring.

6 RSS FEEDS 25 COINS

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PART 7 • PUBLISHED

ENSEMBLE + OPUS 4.5

4-layer ensemble: Signal Engine + ML Models + Regime Detection + News Sentiment. Claude Opus 4.5 as final decision maker.

4 APPS 1 LLM

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